If I could predict the future I would have spent the last 30 years on the race track, not stuck in an office!  I know that’s not very helpful, so let’s see if we can get a closer fix on this critical question.

Data on average life expectancy tells us that men who turned 65 in 2020 will live to 85.  Women fare better.  A 65 year old woman can expect to live to around 87.  But what does that mean for retirees?

Average life expectancy is useful to track improvements across the population as a whole, but it’s a blunt instrument in forecasting how long any individual will live for.  Probabilities tell a different story:

• A 65 year old man has a 1 in 4 chance of living to 92 and a 1 in 10 chance of living to 96.
• A 65 year old woman has a 1 in 4 chance of living to 94 and a 1 in 10 chance of living to 98

These figures suggest a 65 year old would be prudent to plan for a retirement that could last for 30 years. It’s no surprise many financial advisers now routinely plan for a 100 year life.

And who knows what might happen in the future. Over the next 20-30 years successful treatments for the main killers in the developed world – cancer, heart disease and strokes – could be commonplace.  Aubrey De Grey is Chief Science Officer at the SENS Research Foundation and claims that the first person to live for 1000 years has already been born!  As an ex smoker with a pathological hatred of gyms, I’m guessing it might not be me.

So where does this leave us?  Well, it makes sense to plan for a long retirement whoever you are.

If you suffer from poor health, and lead a lifestyle that could shorten your life expectancy, you might assume you won’t enjoy a long retirement.  The sad truth is you could be right.  But most of us know someone who smoked, was no stranger to the inside of a bar, rarely exercised, yet lived to a ripe old age.

Of course, the statistics tells us these people are the exception.  Most of us will reap what we sow. Despite this, it’s dangerous to make assumptions about life expectancy.  It makes sense to plan on the basis that retirement could last much longer than you imagine.

Wouldn’t that be nice?